US and Iran Reach Tentative Deal on 60-Day Ceasefire Extension, Encompassing Lebanon

Disclosures by the news outlet Axios suggest that Washington and Tehran have finalized the language of a proposed memorandum of understanding, though the arrangement still requires sign-off from top officials in both capitals before proceeding to formal execution.

Diplomatic insiders and intermediaries engaged in the talks indicate that current work centers on refining remaining details and establishing when and where the ceremony will take place. Multiple sources point to Geneva as the likely venue, with the signing potentially occurring within days.

According to Axios, the draft accord would prolong the existing ceasefire between the two powers for an additional 60 days, with the agreement explicitly extending to cover Lebanon. This window would allow both sides to pursue comprehensive discussions regarding Iran's nuclear activities and other contentious matters.

The proposed memorandum calls for immediate restoration of maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz upon the agreement's activation, with no new transit levies imposed. Shipping volumes and sea traffic are anticipated to return to pre-conflict levels within a month—a development expected to stabilize international energy markets and ease apprehensions about oil supply security.

On nuclear matters, sources indicate Iran would commit to forgoing nuclear weapons development and would engage in structured negotiations to resolve questions surrounding uranium enrichment and existing stockpiles under international supervision. President Donald Trump has reportedly agreed to explore options for reducing Iran's uranium enrichment rates, with verification conducted by UN inspectors.

The memorandum envisions a phased unwinding of sanctions targeting Iran, though the pace would depend on Tehran's adherence to the agreement's conditions and verifiable compliance mechanisms. No predetermined schedule for sanctions removal has been established.

American officials disclosed that Washington, Tehran, and Qatar explored arrangements permitting Iran to access a portion of its frozen overseas assets for humanitarian purchases, framed as a confidence-building initiative between the parties.

Qatar's diplomatic efforts proved instrumental in reaching the initial understanding, with Qatari intermediaries maintaining direct and intensive communication with American envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as well as with Iran's Foreign Minister. These channels reportedly facilitated convergence during the negotiation's final phase.

As an indication that formalization draws near, sources reported that four American aircraft carrying logistical support for Vice President J.D. Vance departed for Europe, positioning for potential attendance at the signing ceremony.

Intelligence sources also noted that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reached out recently to associates within the Trump administration seeking additional information regarding the substance of the emerging US-Iranian understandings.

The development represents a turning point after prolonged military tensions and regional instability, encompassing threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, reciprocal military actions, and proxy confrontations across multiple theaters. Should the accord receive formal approval, it would constitute a significant strategic realignment with potential to reshape regional dynamics, particularly given its comprehensive approach integrating nuclear issues, sanctions frameworks, maritime security, and ceasefire provisions into a single agreement.

Lebanon's explicit inclusion in the 60-day ceasefire extension holds substantial significance for the country, underscoring how interconnected regional matters have become in these negotiations and suggesting that a comprehensive American-Iranian settlement would carry substantial implications for Lebanon's security landscape and broader Middle Eastern stability.